Can Boise State prove its best days are still ahead? (2024)

On a Friday night last September in El Paso, Texas, Boise State, a program famous for knocking off the likes of Georgia and Oklahoma, suffered an embarrassing 27-10 loss at UTEP. The Broncos, an underwhelming 7-5 team the year before in coach Andy Avalos’ debut season, were off to a 2-2 start in 2022 and seemed like a shell of the Chris Petersen/Kellen Moore glory-day Boise teams.

But then came two crossroads moments. Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and promoted offensive analyst Dirk Koetter, the former NFL head coach who had been Boise State’s head man more than two decades prior. Days later, struggling four-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal (he’s now at Louisiana Tech), ceding the job to dual-threat redshirt freshman Taylen Green.

Behind a transformed offense that produced the Mountain West’s No. 2 rushing attack, Boise won seven of its next eight games to reach its fifth Mountain West title gamein six seasons and finish the year 10-4. The future suddenly looks closer to the past for the Broncos, who open their 2023 season Saturday at No. 10 Washington on ABC. The Athletic is predicting Boise State will reach a New Year’s Six bowl — specifically, the Broncos’ fourth Fiesta Bowl — for the first time since 2014.

“You’ve got to give Andy credit,” said Utah State coach Blake Anderson, whose team lost to the Broncos 42-23 in late November. “It would have been much easier to wait until the end of the season instead of doing it midstream, but they don’t play for a championship if he doesn’t do that.”

Avalos, 41, a former Boise State linebacker (2001-04) and defensive coordinator (2016-18), landed his alma mater’s head coaching position in 2021 following Bryan Harsin’s departure for Auburn. In his debut season, the Broncos lost five games for the first time since Petersen’s last year in 2013. That was easily forgivable, though, for a first-time head coach whose debut came on the heels of Boise’s weird seven-game 2020 season.

But that UTEP debacle, on the heels of a season-opening 37-14 loss at Oregon State, caused considerable concern among Bronco Nation.

“UTEP fans didn’t rush the field following a stunning 27-10 upset,” wrote longtime beat reporter B.J. Rains. “And that may have said it all about the current state of Boise State’s program.”

But then came the upward turn. In his first career start, a 35-13 win over San Diego State, Green became the first Broncos QB since 2014 to run for 100 yards, joining running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty to rack up 316 rushing yards on 7.2 yards per carry. It set the tone for the rest of the season — Holani (1,157 yards, 10 TDs), Jeanty (821 yards, 7 TDs) and Green (586 yards, 10 TDs) gashed most of their opponents down the stretch.

All three return, as do last year’s top four receivers.

Until Saturday newsletter: How to tackle your Week 1 college football Saturday

“You’ve got a three-headed monster, and they’re always really good up front,” said Utah State’s Anderson. “Green is just going to get better, bigger, stronger and faster, and more and more confident. It’s going to make everybody’s job even that much more difficult.”

Meanwhile, Boise fielded the nation’s 11th-ranked defense last season. All-Mountain West linebacker DJ Schramm leads a group that will be tested immediately against Washington star QB Michael Penix Jr.

Koetter’s role was temporary, but Avalos brought in former Boise QB Bush Hamdan to replace him. Hamdan previously worked for Petersen at Washington and spent the past three seasons at Missouri under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz, himself a former Broncos offensive coordinator under Harsin.

There’s something to be said for the Boise State “family,” a lineage of former coaches and players that date back as far as 25 years, shortly after the program moved up to the FBS (formerly Division I-A) level.

When Koetter, who produced back-to-back 10-win seasons, left for Arizona State, then-athletic director Gene Bleymaier promoted assistant Dan Hawkins. Boise State, then in the WAC, went on 36-3 run from 2002-04, which Hawkins parlayed into a job at Colorado. The program then elevated Hawkins’ offensive coordinator, Petersen, who took things to a whole other level, producing undefeated seasons and Fiesta Bowl wins in 2006 and ’09. When Petersen left for Washington, Boise brought back his former offensive coordinator, Harsin, who won another Fiesta Bowl in 2014 and three Mountain West championships over his seven seasons.

A program that rarely lands high-profile recruits managed to produce a Heisman finalist in Moore, now the LA Chargers offensive coordinator, and a slew of future NFL players like running back Doug Martin, tackle Ryan Clady, cornerback Orlando Scandrick, defensive lineman DeMarcus Lawrence and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch.

But somewhere along the way, the national buzz started wearing off. The Broncos’ conference lost luster when TCU and Utah moved up to the Power 5 and BYU went independent, and it’s caused no shortage of frustration for Boise fans that it’s never gotten a Power 5 invite while a less accomplished program like Houston is joining the Big 12 this season.

It also hasn’t helped that the Mountain West left longtime partner ESPN for Fox, an arrangement that has produced more money but less exposure. In 2019, the last season of the old deal, the Broncos played nine of their 14 games on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2. Last season they played 10 of 14 on either FS1, FS2 or CBS Sports Network.

Boise State’s .819 winning percentage this century ranks second nationally, behind Ohio State (.834), but since 2015 it is “only” .740.

“A lot of it is a victim of our own success,” said third-year athletic director Jeramiah Dickey. “We have very high expectations as a fan base, and in the college athletics realm. And as much as I appreciate our past and the Fiesta Bowl appearances — that’s who we are, that’s our history — we have to continue to elevate.”

Whereas Hawkins’ and Petersen’s Fiesta Bowl teams had to go undefeated to earn a BCS berth, the current system leaves margin for error. If Boise State loses to Washington, but turns around and wins the Mountain West, it has a good chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. Especially given the AAC, which has produced that team in each of the past six seasons, is losing three of its best programs in Cincinnati, Houston and UCF.

But even then, a New Year’s Six bowl berth doesn’t hold the same significance it did a decade ago. Tulane’s stirring comeback to knock off USC in last year’s Cotton Bowl was not celebrated to nearly the extent as Boise’s dramatic Statue of Liberty win over Oklahoma. That famed 2007 Fiesta Bowl had 13.8 million viewers; Tulane-USC drew 4.2 million.

The best possible development for Boise’s program is next year’s move to a 12-team Playoff. As of today, the format will reserve berths for the six highest-ranked conference champions. (The commissioners have discussed dropping it to five if the Pac-12 dissolves.) With the AAC weakened, and the Mountain West potentially landing Oregon State and Washington State, the MWC champ may become the default to land a berth.

“I’m bullish on how things are aligning,” said Dickey. “We hold ourselves to high standards, we’re here to compete. And with the expansion of the Playoff, that gives us the opportunity to do it the highest level. It would mean the world to Bronco Nation and to our institution.”

Bur first, they have to win.

Dickey has been driving several ongoing improvements to the program’s infrastructure. In 2022, he unveiled plans for a $300 million athletics master village that would upgrade all of the school’s key facilities. First up is an estimated $40 million expansion of the north end zone building at Albertson’s Stadium.

And Avalos was given the funding to add four positions to his support staff each of the past two offseasons, including four analysts and quality control coaches.

“We were in a limited position two years ago, and we identified some areas that were going to be necessary to grow forward in the new landscape of college football, knowing all the rule changes that have come out,” said Avalos. “In two years’ time, the staff makeup and the amount of help and positions we have looks totally different.”

But Avalos knows well that no amount of fundraising and buildings guarantees a return to the lofty levels the Broncos reached in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

“It’s a lot of hard work, commitment, sacrifice — (it) takes a little luck, too,” he said. “The football gods have got to love you up a little bit here and there, and that’s what’s happened in some of those really special seasons.”

Which is just what it might take to knock off a top-10 foe on the road Saturday.

(Photo of Taylen Green: Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)